We live in an age of algorithmic prediction. Recommendation engines tell us what to watch, machine learning models forecast stock markets, and AI systems attempt to predict which ideas will survive the next decade. Yet there’s an older, simpler principle that consistently outperforms these sophisticated models: the Lindy Effect. If something has been around for a long time, it’s likely to stay around for a long time. The longer a technology, idea, or investment has persisted, the longer its expected future lifespan.
This counterintuitive concept challenges how we think about innovation, investing, and personal growth. In my years of researching decision-making and behavioral economics, I’ve found that understanding the Lindy Effect can fundamentally improve how professionals evaluate risks, choose learning priorities, and allocate their limited attention. It’s not that new is bad—but new without precedent carries invisible fragility.
What Exactly Is the Lindy Effect?
The term “Lindy Effect” originated in the 1960s at Lindy’s Delicatessen in New York, where comedians would hang out. They observed that a Broadway show’s expected remaining run was proportional to how long it had already run. A show that had been running for 10 years was more likely to run another 10 years than one that had been running for only 3 months.
Related: cognitive biases guide
The modern articulation comes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who popularized it in his 2012 book Antifragile. Taleb distinguished between two categories of things:
Last updated: 2026-04-02
Your Next Steps
- Today: Pick one idea from this article and try it before bed tonight.
- This week: Track your results for 5 days — even a simple notes app works.
- Next 30 days: Review what worked, drop what didn’t, and build your personal system.
About the Author
Written by the Rational Growth editorial team. Our health and psychology content is informed by peer-reviewed research, clinical guidelines, and real-world experience. We follow strict editorial standards and cite primary sources throughout.
References
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2014). The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. W.W. Norton & Company.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder. Random House.
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Newport, C. (2016). Deep work: Rules for focused success in a distracted world. Grand Central Publishing.
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